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A twist to previous post on football team's Starting 11 analogy - My team of Last 11! Sell, Keep or Buy More? 😅🤔

Decided to write this post as a continuation or twist to my previous blog post on my stocks/REITS portfolio's first 11 starting team using the football team analogy, which was hotly discussed during the GE2025 election run up (See: My football team(stock portfolio)'s Starting 11! Can our reserve players substitute them? 🤔)


This topic also bugged me because of recent separate discussions with my friends, TJY and JL on potential reserve players in TJY's portfolio and JL's queries on my previous First 11 starting team post. So here goes!


Just as we have great players in my Starting team of FIRST 11 players in my portfolio and the reserve back up players, we are also bound to have lousy/off-form players in my portfolio.

For this, I have collated my LAST 11 stocks/Reits' performance so far in the columns of the table below, based on a few criteria: (i) % paper Capital Loss on my purchase cost (ii) Past 3 years dividend track records and (iii) Actual Dividend Yield (%) on my purchase cost:

S/N

Stock

Capital Loss on cost (at 9 May 25)

Dividend (2 years ago) ($)

Dividend (1 yr ago) ($)

Dividend (TTM)($)

ACTUAL Dividend Yield (TTM) on cost (%)

POSSIBLE Dividend Yield on current px (%)

1

First Reit

-66%

0.0248

0.0236

0.0234

3.06%

9.00%

2

Frasers Log & Com Trust

-46.1%

0.0704

0.068

0.0632

4.42%

7.57%

3

LGI-OSPL CHINA ETF

-14.8%

0.033

0.0468

0.0456

2.28%

2.68%

4

Micro Mechanics

-18%

0.09

0.06

0.06

3.03%

3.7%

5

Overseas Education

-41%

0.011

0.013

0.012

3.63%

6.15%

6

Capitaland China Trust

-40%

0.075

0.0674

0.0565

4.91%

8.19%

7

Frasers Hosp Trust

-7.3%

0.0164

0.0244

0.0266

3.15%

3.40%

8

Lend Lease Reit

-32%

0.049

0.0435

0.0357

4.86%

7.14%

9

Mapletree Pan Asia Trust

-27%

0.0961

0.0891

0.0802

4.86%

6.68%

10

Mapletree Industrial Trust

-28%

0.1357

0.1343

0.1357

5.01%

6.92%

11

Digital Core Reit

-41%

0.0384

0.0370

0.0360

4.09%

6.99%

Wow, this spring-cleaning exercise is really good and gives clarity of thought as I tabulated the numbers above. I have broadly grouped my LAST 11 stocks/Reits into 3 groups - Colour coded based on the traffic light rules (Red = Danger, Stop / Yellow = Warning, Stop if possible / Green = Clear to go!) as follows: (1) Red Rows: Cannot make it ones (长痛不如短痛), to be sold as there are no near/mid-term upsides foreseeable to the capital loss or dividend yield (see my analysis below)

  • First Reit: Dropping dividends over past 3 years, Past dubious history with sponsor, unfavourable master lease agreements for their Indonesian hospitals/nursing homes assets, depreciating Indonesia rupiah, Mgmt's attempt to pivot to Japan's nursing home is small & slow and doubt we'll see results anytime soon.

  • Frasers Logistic & Commercial Trust: With Trump's tariffs, looming trade wars, and their loust latest results (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/frasers-logistics-commercial-trust-posts-13-8-lower-h1-dpu-s0-03-amid-challenges-commercial) with almost all metrics downs and Dropping dividends over past 3 years, it doesn't bode well for FLCT, and I don't see any turnaround anytime soon, esp with interest rates not being cut to-date.

  • Lion-OCBC China Leaders ETF: Bought at IPO banking on China's growth story that has stuttered since and its price has been going down, down, down and dividends are pathetic 2+% too, and no catalyst seen anytime soon too. Definitely has Oppty costs for holding this lemon.

  • Micro Mechanics: Cyclical semi-conductor industry stock that has seen its ups and downs recently, price has recovered a bit lately but at 3+% yield and unlikely breakeven of cost, there are better stocks and higher yielding ones to buy instead.

  • Overseas Education Limited: Covid-19 has hit their enrolment hard with expats affected during the lock-downs, which added to its woes of filling up international student occupancy since they moved to the new campus in Pasir Ris. With only 1 property and dividend cuts of recent years, maybe time to sell and move on...


(2) Yellow Rows: Undecided ones (could be room for potential upward revision, or Mgmt undertaking strategic review or possible near/mid-term price appreciation). See my analysis below:


(3) Green Rows: Buy more to average down price due to good recent performance or potential upside

  • Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT): While the threats of tariffs and trade wars may have spooked unitholders, and FED's decision to hold the rates last week may have caused its price to be weak, but a yield of ~7% (see last column in purple based on current price), with substantial assets in data centres in MIT's portfolio is enticing. Maybe sell some of those in red rows to average down MIT.

  • Digital Core REIT (DCR): Rather nice earning results recently with higher distributable income, jump in revenue, high occupancy (see: Digital Core REIT reports distributable income of US$11.7 mil for 1QFY2025, up 9.9% y-o-y) (Digital Core REIT - Pure-play data centre REIT at attractive valuation - Growbeansprout.com) causing DCR's price to recover lately, but at ~7% (see last column in purple based on current price) with freehold data centres is attractive and with 1 of world's largest data centre operator, Digital Realty as its sponsor, DCR is definitely worth a look. But something that bugs me is DCR's customer concentration. Out of their 100+ customers, DCR's Top 10 customers account for 84.6% of its rent, although it has already reduced from 99.6% in previous year as Mgmt is continuing to diversify the customer concentration.


As usual, pls do your own due diligence. This exercise has definitely given me clarity on my players' performance thus far, and what I should focus on and to take action to boost my yield and safeguard my downside.

As with life, there are many uncertainties - What if price recovers after I sell? What if dividends increased after I sell? But as I told my friend, JL last night, Investing is a game of Risks vs Rewards - Weigh the pros and cons, make your best assessment based available data and with what we can foresee then take actions based on our experience and move on, no regrets 😉


Have you assessed your portfolio stocks' future potential (or lack thereof) and consider whether to sell certain lousy lemons and/or to buy better sweet strawberries? 😉


Disclaimer: The above article is just the author expressing his layman views. It is NOT financial advice, and NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or REITs. Pls do your own due diligence and/or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any moves or taking any actions. Pls note that past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance or potential.


To our financial literacy;

Mr MoneyandHealth (Mr MH) ;)

 
 
 

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